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Post by Lucifer on Jul 10, 2022 1:49:45 GMT
A note on formatting: I know it's a bitch to do on phones, so I don't require votes or other special stuff to be bolded. But to make my job nice and easy, I'd really appreciate it if you put any votes in their own paragraph, ideally either at the very beginning or very end of a post. Like this:
Vote: Example
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Post by Lucifer on Jul 10, 2022 1:50:57 GMT
Page 3 hype! Woot woot!
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Post by Lucifer on Jul 10, 2022 1:53:37 GMT
If you notice the spreadsheet is missing any votes, please let me know.
Yes, I'm a li'l bit extra :upside_down:
I just gave my spreadsheet even more features, gosh I love that spreadsheet.
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 2:35:45 GMT
hmm do you think people will judge me for posting this late into the morning?
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Post by ashera on Jul 10, 2022 8:25:00 GMT
hmm do you think people will judge me for posting this late into the morning? Nah, it be like that sometimes
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Post by Demesne King on Jul 10, 2022 8:25:59 GMT
Greetings all! I am very excited to be playing with you. I notice a number of first-time forum players among us. Welcome!
I'm not going to talk about my discard. Aegis is right that it's a red herring. There are players in this game who routinely discard really great power roles in favour of vanilla town. The variance in drawing two random roles from the list is high enough that there will be at least one person you can draw any conclusion about on D1 and I worry that some of the newer players are going to get bogged down in meaningless speculation by those engaging too hard with it.
Nicks approach to the discard list seems to be in character for them. Everyone else I think is just mirroring the early discard analysis lists like the obvious conclusions aren't already apparent.
Silver is one of the few players actually engaging with what players are saying. Not that that is a hard play to pull this early in the game. I do think they're misguided in focusing on their scumread. Developing your townreads is a much better use of D1.
In that respect I'd love to hear from ashera luke and Molly on who they gives them town vibes so far. This question is of course extended to the rest of the playerbase too.
Voting momentum is good Vote: Daisy
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Post by silver on Jul 10, 2022 8:46:47 GMT
Greetings all! I am very excited to be playing with you. I notice a number of first-time forum players among us. Welcome!
I'm not going to talk about my discard. Aegis is right that it's a red herring. There are players in this game who routinely discard really great power roles in favour of vanilla town. The variance in drawing two random roles from the list is high enough that there will be at least one person you can draw any conclusion about on D1 and I worry that some of the newer players are going to get bogged down in meaningless speculation by those engaging too hard with it.
Nicks approach to the discard list seems to be in character for them. Everyone else I think is just mirroring the early discard analysis lists like the obvious conclusions aren't already apparent.
Silver is one of the few players actually engaging with what players are saying. Not that that is a hard play to pull this early in the game. I do think they're misguided in focusing on their scumread. Developing your townreads is a much better use of D1.
In that respect I'd love to hear from ashera luke and Molly on who they gives them town vibes so far. This question is of course extended to the rest of the playerbase too.
Voting momentum is good Vote: Daisy
Greetings! Good to have ya! 😁 You're probably right in the fact that I should be focusing on town reads, its what I'm better at in normal mafia after all, but we do have to vote someone off eventually :/ cant all be town And I am acutely aware that you didnt mention Olterior at all, diverting attention from a mafia wagon mayhaps? 🧐 Tldr: You have a point, but im curious about your opinions on Olterior first
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Post by silver on Jul 10, 2022 8:52:09 GMT
Also curious as to why you built on the Daisy wagon for voting momentum, over Demesne King or Olterior? You didnt give a reason or a read on any of them
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esh
Vanilla Town
Posts: 19
Pronoun: they
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Post by esh on Jul 10, 2022 9:29:08 GMT
"ollie is mafia"
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 9:59:04 GMT
Also curious as to why you built on the Daisy wagon for voting momentum, over Demesne King or Olterior? You didnt give a reason or a read on any of them lmao I'd have been very surprised if demesne king's first wagon was on themselves lksgjs
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Post by ashera on Jul 10, 2022 10:15:48 GMT
Greetings all! I am very excited to be playing with you. I notice a number of first-time forum players among us. Welcome!
I'm not going to talk about my discard. Aegis is right that it's a red herring. There are players in this game who routinely discard really great power roles in favour of vanilla town. The variance in drawing two random roles from the list is high enough that there will be at least one person you can draw any conclusion about on D1 and I worry that some of the newer players are going to get bogged down in meaningless speculation by those engaging too hard with it.
Nicks approach to the discard list seems to be in character for them. Everyone else I think is just mirroring the early discard analysis lists like the obvious conclusions aren't already apparent.
Silver is one of the few players actually engaging with what players are saying. Not that that is a hard play to pull this early in the game. I do think they're misguided in focusing on their scumread. Developing your townreads is a much better use of D1.
In that respect I'd love to hear from ashera luke and Molly on who they gives them town vibes so far. This question is of course extended to the rest of the playerbase too.
Voting momentum is good Vote: Daisy
So far my most town reads are Silver and Aegis. I like how they've been analysing things (and I like Aegis' pfp). While I'm tempted to vote for someone now for the drama, there's no one I particularly feel like voting for right now.
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Post by olterior on Jul 10, 2022 10:49:55 GMT
good morning campers! nobody has provided me with animal information which is incredibly sad, but ye a fair amount of consensus on the discards which is cool. Well, there has been a few differences of opinion, though personally I quite like those because it gives cool insight stuff into what people are thinking - following this logic, I've liked Aegis's reasoning of making thoughts on discards based on how anti-town they are, and will prolly put Nick's discard into a "probably not alignment indicative (NAI)" pile. Ofc it's D1 and so I have very few well-evidenced or original thoughts to go around, but from ✨vibes✨ I've got King, Luke, Aegis as solidly town; Molly and Nick as kinda town. Molly is very subject to change though as the vibe i think is based on the genuine tone-ness of her posts, but also D1 evil teams can probably more easily hide behind the standard discard thoughts so as to not give away any associations with their bud and so maybe I should be sussing her. But I like the vibe, so...
King as solidly town atm because their logic seems logical and I'm not gonna think to hard about whether it's a mafia thing for D1; Luke bc I liked their questions and Aegis for their Bold Innovative discard thoughts (as relative to the fairly standard discard thoughts that I and others have understandably churned out). Aside from my yesterday "hmmmmm's" about people's discards, I don't have any coherent sus vibes from people.
Luke questions answers (olterior edition): 1. I do like to consider discards as a potential alignment read, but as peeps have said, there's a lot of cards in the game and it's v possible that people got 2 cards that were very similiar to choose from or got a card that was so not-good that they didn't really have a choice. It's nice to say words though.
2. I tend to prefer medium-long postss personally so that all my stuff is contained, but short posts are cool especially if you're just responding to one thing and deffo do what you want based on what you wanna say.
3. Clams before death can be in shock (i have nothing to say that Aegis/ Silver didn't say in their answers lmao)
I'm a little unsure why questioning about "what sort of role do you like playing as compared to a vigilante" would be harmful per se; i'm assuming something about not wanting a personal peference to have people voted off? If so I can sorta understand & probably should've worded it more as "so why not vigilante" as that's basicallyyy what I wanted to know. Anyway, I don't have an alignment read on Silver.
Conclusion: I don't wanna vote King/ Luke/ Aegis/ Nick. And probably not Molly, but I could be persauded. Anyone I haven't mentioned I don't have much on, and I'm also not sure of Silver.
After this post i'mma make another post containing just the text containing my vote for Esh because they are obviously wayyyyyyyy more mafia that I could ever hope to acheieve
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Post by olterior on Jul 10, 2022 10:55:23 GMT
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 11:04:58 GMT
I have 2 questions for everyone. 1) Do people usually analyse discards for alignment? 2) Do people prefer many short posts or few massive posts? 3) Do we claim our roles when about to die or could we do it before, to see how sus the claims are? 1) Yea I mean I don't see why not. I don't think they're dealbreakers for end of day pushes or anything but they can be useful in kickstarting discussion around certain players. 2) I'm a short post girl cause it's a lot easier for me to just say whatever comes to mind and then deal with the consequences later, rather than sit and ruminate for hours trying to build up one massive post. But as everyone else has said, it's a personal preference thing. 3) I would be v careful around explicit claims, at least in the early game, cause we don't want mafia to piece together who's a power role and who's not. Like I've soft claimed the Daisy greater ideas classic but straight up hard claiming would let mafia know if I'm a threat or not. There are likely some strong town power roles about and we don't wanna make the POE process for mafia tracking them down easier.
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 11:08:19 GMT
Aside from my yesterday "hmmmmm's" about people's discards, I don't have any coherent sus vibes from people. hey ollie you want a coherent sus vibe? 👀 Unvote: Demesne King Vote: Olterior
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Aegis
Cult Leader
Posts: 685
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Post by Aegis on Jul 10, 2022 11:27:44 GMT
Updated sus list based on who has posted: Ollie - most sus so far. their discard was nai and some of their content seemed more mafia sighted than town sighted (if that makes any sense) Molly - wasn't a huge fan of the initial post mostly because it felt very self-savey, and their 2nd felt like it didn't add much to the conversation (which i guess cant be helped, considering we are talking about the same stuff over and over)Ashera - understandable post, i think my logic on roles would be similar, I liked the quick-to-the-point-ness of it and the lack of need to over explain themselves seems kinda town? Though, I am aware that they can play a similar sit-back strategy when mafia so I don't trust this read completelyAegis - Fairly standard content so far, not too much to add other than I don't like the current push that you're going for. Nick - Decent discard overview, I like it. Decent discard itself, I like it. Content? Kinda missing. I appreciated the input on the d1 no vote though, saved our skin there.
Daisy - Surprisingly, this is my current best read. They had a slightly different perspective on some of the discards that I thought added to the discussion, and something they said earlier made me feel a bit better about their discard. The wagon theyre currently pushing with me gives me some pause, as Demesne King hasnt posted yet it doesn't feel like a very constructive wagon to help push. I was about to jump onto the Olterior wagon but they switched before me :/ made me think for a while
Maybe we can make this reform and get some more Ol content? They would probably be my d1 exile right now Vote: OlteriorTopic of discussion: analysis of the two people we are currently voting for. I will be using this post as a reference point and to re remind the court this post exists. In one corner we have the Daisy wagon. This seems solidly based on discard privilege. All 3 players that indicate a want for this line (me, King and Luke) have either given their explanation sufficiently or it is VERY easy to deduce why (King is only other awful discard). Ollie also has every reason to continue this line, but chooses not to because idk funny joke?
In the other corner we have the Ollie wagon, wanted now by Silver, Esh and Daisy. Esh has given no reasoning, Silver has given the following reads list I will comment on, but is flawed. And Daisy keeps on changing their mind once again for seemingly jokey reasons.
Now addressing Silver’s post directly, the town read on Daisy and sus read on Ollie seems to be a surprising bias given how little reasoning there is for the sus read on Ollie and the Daisy read is very messy. She didn’t elaborate properly, just alluded to stuff. Yet see her replies to King and my reads for examples of how strongly she already is holding these beliefs and in some places alluding to stuff unnecessarily. Basically, for such a radical approach to evaluating day 1, there is little openly available reasons for this bias.
Conclusion: only one of these wagons have merit. The other wagon could easily switch to King for discard alternative or give properly justified reasons for Ollie push but until then this is barely noteworthy to motivate response from Ollie. I don’t feel the need to comment more on my opinions of posts, I will instead make a proper reads list when enough time has passed. But I do have them.
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esh
Vanilla Town
Posts: 19
Pronoun: they
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Post by esh on Jul 10, 2022 11:34:17 GMT
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Post by luke on Jul 10, 2022 11:36:07 GMT
Greetings all! I am very excited to be playing with you. I notice a number of first-time forum players among us. Welcome!
I'm not going to talk about my discard. Aegis is right that it's a red herring. There are players in this game who routinely discard really great power roles in favour of vanilla town. The variance in drawing two random roles from the list is high enough that there will be at least one person you can draw any conclusion about on D1 and I worry that some of the newer players are going to get bogged down in meaningless speculation by those engaging too hard with it.
Nicks approach to the discard list seems to be in character for them. Everyone else I think is just mirroring the early discard analysis lists like the obvious conclusions aren't already apparent.
Silver is one of the few players actually engaging with what players are saying. Not that that is a hard play to pull this early in the game. I do think they're misguided in focusing on their scumread. Developing your townreads is a much better use of D1.
In that respect I'd love to hear from ashera luke and Molly on who they gives them town vibes so far. This question is of course extended to the rest of the playerbase too.
Voting momentum is good Vote: Daisy
I'd say that I townread Aegis, Ashera, Molly and Olterior (and maybe you). You didn't ask me about scumreads but I'd say Daisy, Nick and Silver. Silver is openly townreading Daisy and I disagree, partly the Jack discard yeah but not only that. Nick just seems to be quite neutral so far, maybe this will change as we play. I'm wondering whether associatives are even a big thing in this game - there are 18 Mafia roles and 18 Werewolf roles out of 146 possible roles (155 if we are doing Replicants). So there might not even be an informed minority in this game. But my current scumreads aren't just based on associatives but more who I find individually suspicious.
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Post by luke on Jul 10, 2022 11:38:24 GMT
I don't really have enough from Esh or Elements to say anything about them yet.
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 11:43:37 GMT
Silver is openly townreading Daisy and I disagree, partly the Jack discard yeah but not only that. What about my play bar the Jack discard has been scummy?
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Aegis
Cult Leader
Posts: 685
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Post by Aegis on Jul 10, 2022 11:45:40 GMT
I'd say that I townread Aegis, Ashera, Molly and Olterior (and maybe you). You didn't ask me about scumreads but I'd say Daisy, Nick and Silver. Silver is openly townreading Daisy and I disagree, partly the Jack discard yeah but not only that. Nick just seems to be quite neutral so far, maybe this will change as we play. I'm wondering whether associatives are even a big thing in this game - there are 18 Mafia roles and 18 Werewolf roles out of 146 possible roles (155 if we are doing Replicants). So there might not even be an informed minority in this game. But my current scumreads aren't just based on associatives but more who I find individually suspicious. Pause to say that a) thank you a ton for that helpful read list and b) that is so true about the possibility of no associatives. I will follow by saying note how no mafia cards were discarded and only 2 bad faction cards were discarded (so gives more likelihood for a high anti-town number for this game), but this is such a good and interesting insight that should change or be used to base people's reads of this game from now on. Being protective of others may not be a great reason for pushing them without firm reasoning that there is one or more "dominant" factions.
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 11:58:20 GMT
Also I just did some number crunching and there's a roughly 10% chance each role could be mafia. However, there's a roughly 39% chance each role could be aligned against town. (Mafia/WW/Alien/SK/Replicant)
Disregarding discards (even if they may indicate stronger roles are the ones still in the pool), numbers say that yea Luke's right in that associatives are probably not be the biggest thing to go on in this game.
Idk if this maths makes any sense or is of any use to us. Odds can change and there's also v much the possibility half this lobby is mafia, but I figured it'd be useful cause this has changed my perspective on the game a good bit.
I do think that makes today a lot more important tho, as tonight could be a bloodbath.
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Post by luke on Jul 10, 2022 12:40:13 GMT
Silver is openly townreading Daisy and I disagree, partly the Jack discard yeah but not only that. What about my play bar the Jack discard has been scummy? One thing is sticking in my mind. You said earlier about your own discard: "people who played with me before know what's up" or something. From context I gathered this is you softing VT, which is sus because 1) why would you take VT, and 2) why would you soft VT (apparently as an explanation for discarding Jack)? Apart from that, I haven't seen any of your own analysis yet (reads-wise). This is understandable since it's early, maybe if you give some reads soon then you will become less sus. E.g. why did you vote Olterior?
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Post by luke on Jul 10, 2022 12:42:07 GMT
I'd say that I townread Aegis, Ashera, Molly and Olterior (and maybe you). You didn't ask me about scumreads but I'd say Daisy, Nick and Silver. Silver is openly townreading Daisy and I disagree, partly the Jack discard yeah but not only that. Nick just seems to be quite neutral so far, maybe this will change as we play. I'm wondering whether associatives are even a big thing in this game - there are 18 Mafia roles and 18 Werewolf roles out of 146 possible roles (155 if we are doing Replicants). So there might not even be an informed minority in this game. But my current scumreads aren't just based on associatives but more who I find individually suspicious. Pause to say that a) thank you a ton for that helpful read list and b) that is so true about the possibility of no associatives. I will follow by saying note how no mafia cards were discarded and only 2 bad faction cards were discarded (so gives more likelihood for a high anti-town number for this game), but this is such a good and interesting insight that should change or be used to base people's reads of this game from now on. Being protective of others may not be a great reason for pushing them without firm reasoning that there is one or more "dominant" factions. It's nice and warm in your pocket
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 12:53:22 GMT
One thing is sticking in my mind. You said earlier about your own discard: "people who played with me before know what's up" or something. From context I gathered this is you softing VT, which is sus because 1) why would you take VT, and 2) why would you soft VT (apparently as an explanation for discarding Jack)? Apart from that, I haven't seen any of your own analysis yet (reads-wise). This is understandable since it's early, maybe if you give some reads soon then you will become less sus. E.g. why did you vote Olterior? 1) Because it's my favourite role? Many people know this. It's less stress and I can enjoy the game from a comfortable position as VT rather than the pressure of being a power role/scum who has to be more self-protective in their plays. Basically I can play more loose as VT and I like that. 2) Because it's established that in greater ideas I typically will take VT whenever I can, even in the face of strong town power roles that would help town more, or more "exciting" roles. I voted Olterior to create a stronger counter-wagon. The existence of wagons leads to people analysing those wagons and forming opinions on them (see Aegis' recent post looking at how he values my wagon a lot higher than the Olterior wagon). When you get people's perspectives from these wagons, it becomes a lot easier to make reads. Like, for example, how the counter-wagon didn't form on the other mostly agreed upon "suspicious" discard (Demesne King w/ Vig), but instead formed on Ollie who's just sorta been vibing. I even tried to form this wagon and instantly Silver voted away onto Ollie. I do feel like my wagon is the easiest to push right now as well (for obvious reasons) so I'm aware I'm starting on the back foot, but I don't mind being pushed as long as it gets us some good info out of the other players in the game. Though with this post I've basically admitted I'm on Ollie purely for the wagon's sake so might as well put my vote on the King for now. Apologies to those with spreadsheets I like to flip my votes around a lot early game it's fun :3 Unvote: Olterior Vote: Demesne King
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Post by Lucifer on Jul 10, 2022 12:56:51 GMT
there are 18 Mafia roles and 18 Werewolf roles out of 146 possible roles (155 if we are doing Replicants). Replicants are intended as an optional replacement for the alien faction. We have aliens, so we do not have replicants.
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Post by Lucifer on Jul 10, 2022 12:57:47 GMT
It's nice and warm in your pocket Phrasing?
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 12:57:54 GMT
there are 18 Mafia roles and 18 Werewolf roles out of 146 possible roles (155 if we are doing Replicants). Replicants are intended as an optional replacement for the alien faction. We have aliens, so we do not have replicants. oop this makes my maths wrong in my previous maths post disregard most of what I said there slfkdghj
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Aegis
Cult Leader
Posts: 685
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Post by Aegis on Jul 10, 2022 12:59:30 GMT
Replicants are intended as an optional replacement for the alien faction. We have aliens, so we do not have replicants. oop this makes my maths wrong in my previous maths post disregard most of what I said there slfkdghj Don't worry, it was disregarded long before that was made aware, since the math runs into the problem I talked about last forum game we had.
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Post by Daisy on Jul 10, 2022 13:02:27 GMT
oop this makes my maths wrong in my previous maths post disregard most of what I said there slfkdghj Don't worry, it was disregarded long before that was made aware, since the math runs into the problem I talked about last forum game we had. wait can you give me a refresher i can't remember anything game-wise from the last forum game lmao
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