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Post by Hectic on Jul 8, 2019 9:39:33 GMT
The advantage is that knowing what sort of items are in the game might help us figure out what the day bid items are. For example knowing there is a Cludo card in the game changes what we think the Cludo board might do, and knowing there is a Voodoo doll shaped bus is pretty important if it is actually a one shot bus driving ability. This is a good point I hadn't considered. However, it also means it'll make it easier for mafia to steal an item they specifically need; say a cluedo related item. Another counterpoint would be that if 2 or 3 mafia landed in 1 bidding pool, and won few items between them, it would mean the 2 or 3 townies in that pool would be great night kills, since they're likely to have multiple items.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 8, 2019 9:41:34 GMT
I agree that if we have a good enough read and consensus from everyone that this would work however I think at the start of the game this would be hard to do as there has t been a lot to go off of yet if you were suggesting doing this today? It's fine to do on day 1. At worst, if our reads are garbage, we basically randomly assign the items which is as good as bidding amongst ourselves without consensus anyway. If our reads are even slightly good, we assign the items to people more likely to be town than mafia; which is great.
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 9:46:57 GMT
I agree that if we have a good enough read and consensus from everyone that this would work however I think at the start of the game this would be hard to do as there has t been a lot to go off of yet if you were suggesting doing this today? It's fine to do on day 1. At worst, if our reads are garbage, we basically randomly assign the items which is as good as bidding amongst ourselves without consensus anyway. If our reads are even slightly good, we assign the items to people more likely to be town than mafia; which is great. Having thought about it, I agree that it is probably more advantageous doing it this way than simply bidding each other up and randomly losing gold on day 1. I agree with the point this would allow us to get reads also as the reaction of mafia members to the different people could give us better reads also. In conclusion I agree with your point to let town members get items for cheap.
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Post by kate on Jul 8, 2019 9:47:02 GMT
I think at the start of the game this would be hard to do as there has t been a lot to go off of yet if you were suggesting doing this today? Whether we try to give items cheaply to town or mafia to waste their money mafia can still get items cheaply by just lying and saying they only have 10 gold left. It would also force some town members that we have misread as mafia to lose all their gold. Since mafia are going to get heap items anyway, it’s far less risky to give them to people we think are town, especially if the moustache might be a framing ability.
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 9:50:56 GMT
@mods, if two equal bids are attained at the day’s end, does the randomisation take place for all of us to see or is it resolved out of sight?
Also, I’m not liking Hectic’s playstyle this game. I’ve not seen a lot of memes or activity from them in the past 6-7 games, so this sudden spike has me on alert. For all I know, he could be mafia trying to establish himself as an active town. And for him to so easily dismiss my points as ‘I was just joking’ rather than recognising the potential validity of the concern behind them. Do you see how much of a farce this can be? He can literally say any stupid shit is a joke that’s clearly problematic and deserves scrutiny, and somehow people will lap it up as if it’s a valid excuse?!?
Aurimas and Pandamonium are agreeing with him without seeing any kind of problem with anything he’s said. Fundamentally, I see absolutely no reason why they should be freely agreeing and defending him wholesale this early on in the game, without even acknowledging the problematic things that have been said. I believe at least one of these three has to be scummy if not scum, and I’m strongly leaning towards Hectic.
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 9:51:26 GMT
The advantage is that knowing what sort of items are in the game might help us figure out what the day bid items are. For example knowing there is a Cludo card in the game changes what we think the Cludo board might do, and knowing there is a Voodoo doll shaped bus is pretty important if it is actually a one shot bus driving ability. This is a good point I hadn't considered. However, it also means it'll make it easier for mafia to steal an item they specifically need; say a cluedo related item. Another counterpoint would be that if 2 or 3 mafia landed in 1 bidding pool, and won few items between them, it would mean the 2 or 3 townies in that pool would be great night kills, since they're likely to have multiple items. I can see this but if we do not reveal bidding groups then it’s not possible for the mafia to know who was in what group so the risk is nullified.
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 9:52:47 GMT
I think at the start of the game this would be hard to do as there has t been a lot to go off of yet if you were suggesting doing this today? Whether we try to give items cheaply to town or mafia to waste their money mafia can still get items cheaply by just lying and saying they only have 10 gold left. It would also force some town members that we have misread as mafia to lose all their gold. Since mafia are going to get heap items anyway, it’s far less risky to give them to people we think are town, especially if the moustache might be a framing ability. Yes I have agree with this if you read my above post 👍
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 9:52:57 GMT
I also want to raise the possibility that mafia have a way of steadily attaining a gold income so forcing everyone to spend most of their money might not be a great idea in that context, if we consider that they’d invariably win out a war of economic attrition in such a scenario.
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Post by Benjamin on Jul 8, 2019 9:53:11 GMT
Zaiden: as per the rules on page 1 'In case of ties, the first bid wins the item. The auction ends whenever the day phase ends'
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 9:59:26 GMT
I also want to raise the possibility that mafia have a way of steadily attaining a gold income so forcing everyone to spend most of their money might not be a great idea in that context, if we consider that they’d invariably win out a war of economic attrition in such a scenario. This is something I had thought of as well. So I think we should go for the allocation of items to the most town members. This stops town wasting money and if the mafia do indeed gain money overtime this will be key.
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 9:59:44 GMT
I’ve had another thought on bidding groups. It gets randomised every night according to the mods. Mafia will be able to communicate and speculate on every item that’s appeared in the game, while the average townie is only going to be aware of whatever they see within their specific bidding group. Do we really want to be withholding so much information if they can share information and get a leg up that way regardless of what we do? Especially since the bidding groups don’t remain static and get redone every night, so it’s not a case of killing off other people in the group to monopolise items within a pool.
The only issue with this is that they might target a particular person who holds an item they want, need or consider dangerous to their efforts. I’m pretty happy to step forwards and reveal the items in my bidding group, since I didn’t go for any of them, and I feel it would be extremely useful for town to know that they exist in the game.
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 10:02:35 GMT
I’ve had another thought on bidding groups. It gets randomised every night according to the mods. Mafia will be able to communicate and speculate on every item that’s appeared in the game, while the average townie is only going to be aware of whatever they see within their specific bidding group. Do we really want to be withholding so much information if they can share information and get a leg up that way regardless of what we do? Especially since the bidding groups don’t remain static and get redone every night, so it’s not a case of killing off other people in the group to monopolise items within a pool. The only issue with this is that they might target a particular person who holds an item they want, need or consider dangerous to their efforts. I’m pretty happy to step forwards and reveal the items in my bidding group, since I didn’t go for any of them, and I feel it would be extremely useful for town to know that they exist in the game. Although this has some benefits I think if we were to reveal groups then mafia would have a much smaller kill list if they wanted to target someone that got a spesific item. This would be disadvantageous for town.
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 10:07:09 GMT
We would only need one person per group to reveal the group. As far as Mafia know, the rest of the players could be in any of the groups.
In light of the forced spending point Jack raised to deal with suspects, I now find that point to be suspicious. Assume he’s mafia and he knows that the mafia continue receiving income. That kind of scheme could only benefit mafia in the long term.
Otherwise, a player who is publicly known to have run out of gold for whatever reason should also verify the night bidding item groups later on in the game, since they have no chance to purchase the item and mafia would know they can’t have purchased it anyway.
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Post by kate on Jul 8, 2019 10:09:44 GMT
Even if we don’t reveal items for each group. Zaiden saying what items were available in their group seems like a good idea, it doesn’t reveal anything about who else was in the group, so it doesn’t help the mafia narrow down who to kill. Especially since Zaiden has already revealed they didn’t win any bids.
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 10:12:45 GMT
My guess is about 3 mafia in the game, with 3 item groups, 5 players each. That number makes sense to me considering the game was specifically designed around 15 like the mods seem to have suggested in signup, no more no less.
If the above information is true, assuming one person reveals per bidding group, mafia would have 9 players of unknown groups to snipe from, and potentially 3 from confirmed ones, when it comes to items they want or need. Going further into the game, as more people die, obviously this unknown pool shrinks. So I really believe D1 would therefore be optimal to reveal this information, since the bidding groups are at their biggest and mafia have significantly more to guess from in terms of who has what.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 8, 2019 10:13:04 GMT
Fine, since it was highly requested; here are the most useful tells for finding mafia I have in my arsenal:
-Mafia love to reinforce town reads on the strongest towns, while attacking nuetrally read players. -Mafia do not place the first or last vote on an eventual lynchee. -Mafia are less comfortable with making eye contact. -Mafia NEVER post haikus. -And finally, mafia are more delicate with their key presses; look out for this one especially.
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 10:13:12 GMT
We would only need one person per group to reveal the group. As far as Mafia know, the rest of the players could be in any of the groups. In light of the forced spending point Jack raised to deal with suspects, I now find that point to be suspicious. Assume he’s mafia and he knows that the mafia continue receiving income. That kind of scheme could only benefit mafia in the long term. Otherwise, a player who is publicly known to have run out of gold for whatever reason should also verify the night bidding item groups later on in the game, since they have no chance to purchase the item and mafia would know they can’t have purchased it anyway. This is a good idea in theory but there is no way to tell when someone has run out of gold except for them to modkill themselves. So either way they would be a target. I see your point of one person revealing the group but if you were to how do the mafia know that you are telling the truth that you didn’t purchase anything? Surely they would still see you as a threat and make them more likely to night kill you?
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 10:15:04 GMT
If mafia have night chat and they are in all three groups, they might already know every single item that has appeared in the game. This is the key point I want to bring forwards in favour of revealing the information, since I’d imagine they know or will soon find out anyway, so revealing now doesn’t make a difference, in conjunction with all the supporting evidence I’ve laid out above.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 8, 2019 10:15:40 GMT
Now that we have that out of the way: ...Also, I’m not liking Hectic’s playstyle this game. I’ve not seen a lot of memes or activity from them in the past 6-7 games, so this sudden spike has me on alert.... This is only the third game I'm playing, m8, and I was literally almost lynched on day 1 last time I played for posting too many memes. The reason I'm dismissing your points on my joke post is because there's nothing else for me to say on it other than "It was joke.", so further discussion from my point of view is a waste of time. Stop evading this question: Also, I really don't like the fact you've revealed you didn't make any bids in night 1. Why did you feel the need to reveal that, and why didn't you place any bids?
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Post by vj on Jul 8, 2019 10:15:46 GMT
I was also thinking on the same lines of revealing the items in my bidding group, it seems to be a good idea for town. We might get a general idea of what kind of items are in play. I am volunteering to reveal the items in my group.
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 10:16:07 GMT
@yeylab, that’s true. But it’s a risk I’m perfectly willing to run. In games like mafia there will always be an element of luck or guesswork involved from either sides, especially when information is far from being perfect.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 8, 2019 10:17:05 GMT
Zaiden raises a good point about only needing 1 person from each group to reveal the items. Even if we don’t reveal items for each group. Zaiden saying what items were available in their group seems like a good idea, it doesn’t reveal anything about who else was in the group, so it doesn’t help the mafia narrow down who to kill. Especially since Zaiden has already revealed they didn’t win any bids. Agreed.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 8, 2019 10:17:56 GMT
I was also thinking on the same lines of revealing the items in my bidding group, it seems to be a good idea for town. We might get a general idea of what kind of items are in play. I am volunteering to reveal the items in my group. We should have the most suspicious people reveal the items per group.
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Post by vj on Jul 8, 2019 10:20:12 GMT
I was also thinking on the same lines of revealing the items in my bidding group, it seems to be a good idea for town. We might get a general idea of what kind of items are in play. I am volunteering to reveal the items in my group. We should have the most suspicious people reveal the items per group. Why?
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 10:20:38 GMT
I’ve just realised a couple of associated risks.
Someone says they’d be happy to reveal, then can’t because another person already revealed their items. That might narrow the unknown pool for mafia to snipe from. Also, a member of mafia might come forwards and present an absolutely bullshit list of fictitious items, with everyone assuming it’s perfectly valid.
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 10:23:21 GMT
@yeylab, that’s true. But it’s a risk I’m perfectly willing to run. In games like mafia there will always be an element of luck or guesswork involved from either sides, especially when information is far from being perfect. I concede that but if the mafia are all in the same group then a town member reveals the items and they didn’t bid on any doesn’t that mean there is only one choice for them? (An extreme case I know but want to cover all bases before we decide) I do think the risk is smallest now for the nine other player however with the randomisation of the groups, unless they place a mafia in each group spesfically which I don’t think they would do as we would be able to narrow down the mafia that way. This would lead me to believe that the mafia are randomly distributed throughout. I still think it is hard to coordinate someone to reveal the each group each night who hasn’t bid on anything.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 8, 2019 10:23:25 GMT
The problem with this method is that it's hard to get the second person to reveal their items if we happen to pick someone in Zaiden's group. They can't exactly say why they can't reveal their group's items without making it obvious they're in Zaiden's one.
Townlean on yelyab: He didn't know there were 5 people per bidding group which I'm sure would've been brought up in the pregame mafia chat. Plus, his cautiousness about the day bidding issue seemed genuine, and him being convinced and coming round did as well.
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Post by vj on Jul 8, 2019 10:23:54 GMT
Someone says they’d be happy to reveal, then can’t because another person already revealed their items. -- agreed Also, a member of mafia might come forwards and present an absolutely bullshit list of fictitious items, with everyone assuming it’s perfectly valid. -- how is this going to work in mafias favor?
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Post by Zaiden on Jul 8, 2019 10:24:01 GMT
Cuz if I come forwards and make up five items, and they aren’t in your personal group, everyone will assume another group might have perfectly had it, even if that wasn’t the case. Mafia can do that kind of stuff. Any ideas on how we can potentially deal with this?
Also, I don’t like Hectic changing up his stance when yeylab and Kate agreed with me as if to passively get behind the general town sentiment. My idea clearly had a lot of problems that need to be resolved, and as someone in a position who was meant to be going against what I say since I’m an alleged scum read, he should be looking for what’s wrong with my points as if they might contain a component that can cause trouble for town. And as people can see, he instead chose to passively agree without even making a statement on how my point affects his read on me, if at all.
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Post by yelyab on Jul 8, 2019 10:26:08 GMT
I was also thinking on the same lines of revealing the items in my bidding group, it seems to be a good idea for town. We might get a general idea of what kind of items are in play. I am volunteering to reveal the items in my group. We should have the most suspicious people reveal the items per group. I think this would lead to more people lying about it. However although people could come forward about a bull list if there are only 3 groups surely someone’s group wouldn’t be mentioned at which point we know someone lied?
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