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Post by vj on Nov 18, 2018 13:40:04 GMT
Zaiden- My main suspicion against you is your vote against elements which at the point of time it was clear that the he was at least 70% town. I feel elements is town because of the claim he made(Of course he could have been lying, but my gut says he was not lying). Arnie, Zaiden, JBDavies, Flop got Votes against them in 1.2 had a reasonable reason behind it except yours. Your reasoning was for voting against elements - " And yeah, it feels like I’m being ganged up on. Sam, distributive, hyououinkyouma, Arnie and now elements jumping onto the train. And I’m expected to be passive as nearly half the players in the game rally against me? For the reasons mentioned above, I’m not convinced with where elements stands on the matter, and think their actions reek of opportunism " There were 5 people ganging up on you and you chose to vote for elements who had the least probability of being Mafia (according to me). Thats why i am voting against you for now.
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Post by hououinkyouma on Nov 18, 2018 13:50:32 GMT
vj: In Zaiden's defence, he voted Elements as he clearly said he felt Elements was 'opportunistically' joining the 'wagon' to gain traction against him. So far Zaiden has mostly voted for Arnie or Elements . Zaiden : Apologies I missed you out. And sorry Zaiden, i skimmed a few post and thought you were in last game. I don't think Elements is 70% town more 51% imo. Note my percentages are just how i feel. ArnieDelsey: what do you think about my accusations against you, Zaiden, and Sam?
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sam
Dreaming God
Posts: 609
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Post by sam on Nov 18, 2018 14:04:39 GMT
" And yeah, it feels like I’m being ganged up on. Sam, distributive, hyououinkyouma, Arnie and now elements jumping onto the train. Just a small thing, but I don't believe I've mentioned you before in this game. In any case, you seem to be drawing attention to yourself by claiming to be the victim of a bandwagon where one doesn't really exist, at least not particularly forcefully. I think people were a bit antsy that you hadn't spoken up much, but you seem to be changing that, so that's good. I'm not suspicious of you to any real extent. I think the few people who want to immediately eliminate one of the more experienced players are a little misguided (yes, I'm arguing from a position of self-preservation here), seeing as experienced players are often killed by the mafia first anyway. You don't want a position where it's day 2 and between both factions the most experienced townies are all dead. Was there any resolution on the strange letters of the alphabet thing? The people I know are playing very predictably like themselves. distributive is playing exactly as she usually does, as is Zaiden. Arnie is slightly quieter than usual and I'd like to hear more from him, but he usually lays low for the first couple of days.
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Post by Elements on Nov 18, 2018 14:14:52 GMT
" And yeah, it feels like I’m being ganged up on. Sam, distributive, hyououinkyouma, Arnie and now elements jumping onto the train. Just a small thing, but I don't believe I've mentioned you before in this game. In any case, you seem to be drawing attention to yourself by claiming to be the victim of a bandwagon where one doesn't really exist, at least not particularly forcefully. I believe that was a poorly edited quote of something Zaiden said earlier in the game
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sam
Dreaming God
Posts: 609
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Post by sam on Nov 18, 2018 14:25:02 GMT
Just a small thing, but I don't believe I've mentioned you before in this game. In any case, you seem to be drawing attention to yourself by claiming to be the victim of a bandwagon where one doesn't really exist, at least not particularly forcefully. I believe that was a poorly edited quote of something Zaiden said earlier in the game Oh I see, I think I misread that.
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Nov 18, 2018 14:30:17 GMT
Concerning my role: I am not Jester and even if I was, the game wouldn't end if I was lynched as one. I said earlier and will repeat, if there is a third party role ingame, it likely has its own win conditions that don't coincide with town's or mafia's... and thus if they win the game would still go on. Hectic would probably confirm the above concerning the hypothetical implementation of a Jester in his games. I really don't like hououinkyouma, which I am viewing as Barry's new alt account. Afterall, Barry did say "Possibly" to that poll a while ago and the nonchalant "I skimmed over the previous games" was a common phrase from his other alt account posts. Barry is more experienced that me for sure and tbh, as slimy and shady one that I'd consider never to be trusted (especially after last game where he was very well town read when he was acting in a town mindset as a mafia). He is also pushing for a eliminate of either me, Sam or Zaiden (the three known-irl experienced players of mafia). I think that is anti-town since its always the most active/experienced who die first by mafia. Why do you want to speed that process up? Anyway, Vote: hououinkyouma aka. Probably Barry Alt
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Nov 18, 2018 14:30:26 GMT
Now I know it looks like I'm doing a Katniss Everdeen here, but I am N0T... yet anyway. I have only announced that I will exclaim "I V0LUNTEER AS TRIBUTE!" if that lottery draw does reveal that a no-eliminate is most probable. I will elaborate on how I like to play with a favourite quote of mine: "It's only game. Why you heff to be mad?" I play for fun, and not gonna lie, to also be the centre of attention of the game's talk. I like to promote discussions so better reads can be have, even if it means being controversial. I dont like this attitude of "0K lets just jump on Arnie". Sure I'm a decent eliminate target now, but I think pressure is needed elsewhere first. I would like to eliminate someone more scummy first and, if there's too much doubt, come back to me as a possibility... if that makes sense. kate and whoever else is mentioning it now. I'm sorry if my use of 0s rather than Os are causing confusion and driving discussion unnecessarily into some tangent. I am doing this because I use my computer for this game (phone just sucks in comparison for text-based posts and editing) and my letter o key is broken, probably because its a 5yr old macbook and should already be dead but isnt. As such, I use cmd+V (paste) with the letter o copied to write "o". As such, I use 0 rather than O because it saves me alot of time looking for a O to copy-paste and then copy-paste an o afterwards. Here's that alphabet repeated that you wanted: ABCDEFGHIKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyz
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Post by Hectic on Nov 18, 2018 17:47:37 GMT
Votecount 1.4With 12 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate. ArnieDesley (3): Flop, Hououinkyouma, Aurimas Jbdavies15 (2): Elements, Cookiemonster Hououinkyouma (2): Distributive, ArnieDesley Zaiden (1): Vj Flop (1): Jbdavies15 Sam (1): Kate Not voting: Sam, Zaiden
As for my Vote, it goes to Zaiden for now. Zaiden vj : I'll count your vote this time, but in the future, please include 'Vote' before the person's name. . : Please do not edit your posts under any circumstances. Lastly, sorry about the confusion over the last votecount. I will assume Zaiden was removing his vote.
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Post by hououinkyouma on Nov 18, 2018 19:06:38 GMT
List of people who have spoken after my questions/accusations in order of response time:
Distributive Aurimas Kate Zaiden Elements Vj Sam Arnie
People who have yet to comment since my post 18 hours ago are: Flop Cookiemonster JBDavies15 (Last online almost 36 hours ago) Needs a prod
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Post by hououinkyouma on Nov 18, 2018 19:12:12 GMT
@everyone: I would like us to all come to terms of who we are lynching by Wednesday as the deadline is on Friday. It gives time for the eliminate candidate to have a defense speech.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 18, 2018 21:00:57 GMT
I already told Barry I’d kick his ass if he was HououinKyouma. And Barry told me I wouldn’t be able to, because he wasn’t. But I don’t actually think I’ve ever seen Barry rally everyone to vote someone way before the deadline - plus we’ve yet to see a classic Barry megapost. While I still don’t like ‘target the experienced’ as a campaign by them, because there are a few people here who are clearly hiding their experience themselves included, they’ve got a point.
Let’s face it, whether they are Allies or Axis, HououinKyouma is speaking a lot of sense. Probably the most sense after Flop imo, and maybe would have been the most without the roleplaying fluff. Though I do think an extreme cognisance of the deadline is a sign of an experienced player, possibly the most experienced one. Since again, they have yet to deny it.
We’ve struggled massively with so many games where we wanted to eliminate someone, left it to the last minute, only for something unexpected/desirable to happen due to mafia shenanigans. We need to choose in advance, and it’s for the best.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 18, 2018 22:12:43 GMT
If I had to choose someone right now, with room for change before Wednesday, it wouldn’t be elements just because I was voting for him.
Part of placing your votes down is to get the other party to respond to your points. If I misplace a crucial vote and get someone killed, that would be scummy. But I don’t see how forgetting where my vote was on D1 makes me scummy, when it’s pretty much a counter used to prod someone to speak. I’m not going to vote someone who already has a vote on them early on, because I know they will respond. So it would be a pointless way of exercising my vote when I could do the same for someone else.
There have been a lot of random votes in this game with shallow reasoning on the first day precisely because we lack perfect information, and need to prod around to gain some more. The fact vj tunnelvisioned on mine and vehemently defend elements as 70% town is baffling. There’s something really funny going on there, and I don’t like it, even if vj is just a beginner. They haven’t been voted once so far, flying under the radar, while other inactives have not gotten a pass.
I would personally choose them as my D1 eliminate target, but want to hear what other people think, since I doubt my suggestion is going to get a lot of support anyway.
Vote: vj
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Post by cookiemonster on Nov 18, 2018 22:14:38 GMT
Here are my thoughts on the most discussed players:
Arnie- I've said it before and I'll say it again- I do not feel Arnie is town. He is either mafia or third party. While unprompted, he told us that his abilities are day only, with lots of time left to go until the first eliminate. Calling for a kill on your own head isn't a smart play as an Ally. An Ally would be doing everything in their ability to prevent a ally being lynched first round, therefore I am incredibly suspicious of Arnie. Saying that, Arnie is an experienced player, and wouldn't be naive enough to actually come up with that as a Jester. As a result, I'm pushed to the conclusion that he is a strong mafia, hoping to divert suspicion.
Zaiden- I am still very confused as to what Zaiden's intentions are. The Sam-Arnie-Zaiden partnership is certainly something we need to keep an eye on as the game progresses. However, I do believe three mafia would not bait themselves out this early as a trio, so out of those three, I would say one or two are mafia. I have already said I believe Arnie is mafia, so I would say at most one out of Zaiden and Sam is mafia.
Unvote: jbdavies15 Vote:Arnie
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Nov 18, 2018 22:34:54 GMT
Haha, I am still confused where this Sam-Arnie-Zaiden trio has arisen from but it does have a nice ring to it. cookiemonster You said: "An Ally would be doing everything in their ability to prevent a ally being lynched first round". Just based off of the fact that town outnumber evils is enough to show a random vote is gonna get a town lynched D1 and the odds go higher when considering that mafia know who each other are. I'm simply trying to redirect a kill towards me so that other, more useful towns, don't get sniped or have to reveal because a bandwagon. Plus, my death has people divided: EXCELLENT for D2 reads and allowing for more informed N1 actions! This tactic is definitely one that should be expected to result in me being killed, and I'm fine with that lol. Tbf it would be a pretty lousy mafia play, but I can see why everyone is on edge. I am obviously not exactly acting very townly, but nor should I try be. I just want to see and compare people's reactions. I've played this game enough to know that town dying D1 isnt that bad provided a key role is in play. I'm also feeling confident in the existence of a role that interacts with the dead, like last game with a medium.
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Nov 18, 2018 22:39:38 GMT
Last game we had two cop reveals D1, both of which turned out to be town, and it really messed up the game for a while... until I YOLO'd a hammer-vote as mafia on someone that was being testing whether he had the loved condition.
I kind of want to not repeat history, or at least minimise that as best I can. Afterall, I have got pretty poop abilities and think this is probably the best contributions I can make to town.
I'm also not nearly as clever as Sam.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 18, 2018 22:44:14 GMT
If it means anything, I will make a partial claim. My vote will count twice today. Whether this is a oneshot or a continued passive, I'll leave for people to guess. As for why I didn't come out and say this earlier, no one I voted for was ever in danger of getting lynched. But if we get our focus split between two candidates, people are free to fiddle with the maths. However, just wanted to avoid potential misunderstandings and confusion if the decided target dies one eliminate earlier. I really don't think we should kill Arnie. Based on what Arnie's hinted, I think I've figured out what role they are, and they are definitely not Axis. At most, they are third party feigning. I think it's more likely that they are part of the Allies. Also while statistics might mean nothing, it would be highly unlikely in my opinion for Arnie to be made mafia three games running. I wouldn't so easily dismiss that, elements. Cookiemonster's latest post makes no sense to me. I clearly outline my intentions, and think they're being overly paranoid about this Sam-Arnie-Zaiden partnership, which I'm sure wasn't HououinKyouma's intention when he said to be wary of experienced players. But this is why I didn't like what HououinKyouma was saying. I think it's misleading and harmful to the game state when players are encouraged to fear the experienced as opposed to properly scumhunting. A beginner scum could also hide behind this excuse of 'I fear the experienced players', and make it seem like they are contributing while killing off their biggest obstacle and threat - those who have more experience and are more likely to spot them out. This idea is dangerous, because Axis don't even have to kill us considering town will do the job for them when we don't die. If the three of us are all town (which I admittedly doubt) and everyone persists with mindlessly lynching us off when we don't die, then the game may very well be over. After all, there are only 12 players and very possibly an anti-town third party - 6 town kills by the end of N3 would result in a loss. I don't know whether it was intentional on HououinKyouma's part to provoke this kind of general response from the players, but this is why I'm hesitant to townread them. It seems way too convenient and could be a solid plan with potential for the Axis to quickly snatch a win. hououinkyouma, thoughts?
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Flop
Vanilla Town
Tired
Posts: 19
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Post by Flop on Nov 18, 2018 22:44:21 GMT
List of people who have spoken after my questions/accusations in order of response time: Distributive Aurimas Kate Zaiden Elements Vj Sam Arnie People who have yet to comment since my post 18 hours ago are: Flop Cookiemonster JBDavies15 (Last online almost 36 hours ago) Needs a prod Which post in particular? At first, I liked HououinKyouma's line of reasoning. We need to focus on getting a eliminate sorted, considering we only have five days left. And to be honest, I didn't want it to seem like I suspected Arnie/Sam because they started off things against me. Their behaviours have seemed really fishy. The other part of what he says, I actually don't like. Naturally, we should kill off 'experienced players' if they look to live too long. I'm flattered to be considered within this echelon. That said, I don't like how they're make a fuss of killing veterans while excluding certain people. It seems... way too favourable for some individuals, who can fly under the radar while removing town's most capable assets. By that logic, distributive should also count as a veteran, because they've partaken in multiple forum games. But there's something else which is a source of greater concern. Most of us have only played forum mafia within Mafia Society. We've developed an internal meta and don't really know about more refined customs and techniques. So Flop, I know it would annoy you because it means you're at a disadvantage here and expressed a dislike of meta. But meta is actually a pretty effective way of going about business considering a lot of us have only played here, myself included. Would you consider such a statement valid? two things to address here: 1. I agree that “If vets live too long they’re clearly mafia and we should eliminate them” is a bad mentality - as mafia, I have frequently kept vets alive because they die for this exact reason. Also, just because you’re experienced don’t automatically make you correct. To this day, my best ever play was on my first forum game and I have yet to perform better in terms of reads. 2. I don’t completely despise meta, though it isn’t the best argument to have when half the players are newcomers to the community. What I hate is people quoting their OWN meta. I could do that all day, and there’s no real way to fact check it. Also, my meta is all over the place as it wildly changes depending on my mood, but that’s beside the point. Saying “don’t eliminate me I always play like this” is different and far worse than saying “x usually only does that as mafia and I think that warrants a vote” I don’t like this either. I’m more of a host than a player these days and I usually play in a fast-paced setup, but if you want to research my play style look up Doctor Floptopus on Bulbagarden (don’t judge my actions from 2-4 years ago, though. Please.) I really don’t think deliberately killing veterans is a good town strat, especially day one. Newbies may seem like easier targets, but (and no offence to the newcomers) they’re also newbies and may not have as much to contribute. That’s my opinions. I see no reason to change my vote at the moment. God, this phase is long.
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Post by hououinkyouma on Nov 18, 2018 22:58:57 GMT
@everyone: We have less than a week left now, we should focus talks on who to eliminate I would like to know what everyone thinks about Sam, Arnie, and Zaiden. And how they've been interacting with one another, considering that they apparently have more experience than probably half of us and that they know each other. 1) Do you think one or both of Sam and Arnie are members of Axis trying to lead us relative newbies to eliminate Zaiden? 2) Or is Zaiden actually Axis? 3) How about Zaiden and one of Sam or Arnie being both members of Axis, trying to fake voting each other for end game purposes? 4) Or are all of them townreads/neutral? Imo I've been reading people posts and also mentions of Arnie possibly being Jester. With him dropping, the Jester role, and saying that he wouldn't mind being lynched. Possibilities: 1) He could be telling the truth. He's an Ally with weakish role. 10% 2) He's Jester or other 3rd party. 10% 3) He's Axis with pretending to have a weakish Ally ability. 25% 4) He's an Ally with an above average role faking a weakish role. 25% 5) He's an Axis with a strongish role, faking weakish Ally role, while implying Jester to make people hesitate. 30% I doubt our GM would make the game end if 3rd party won their win condition. I've been looking at previous forum mafia games here. My conclusion is that I doubt Arnie is telling the truth and if he is experienced, I doubt he's actually Jester. Even if he is Jester or he is telling the truth, he is still the one that I want to eliminate. Note I don't think Arnie has brought much to the table, though neither have I and other players really. My percentages are just an approximation of what I think of Arnie so far. Flop: This is my post, I was referencing too.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 18, 2018 23:01:56 GMT
Flop, you're correct about meta. I generally don't like it. But a lot of other people have substantiated on my behalf that this is the way I play - arnie, aurimas, sam, etc. Also, I'm not asking everyone to suspect you. In fact, I've mentioned how I consider you to be a townread. I was using you as an example to highlight that HououinKyouma was conveniently leaving out other players who were clearly experienced. You've been really frank and forthright about your experience, so leaving you out of that category would have been intellectually dishonest to the point I was making, which was intended to contest HououinKyouma's suggestions.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 18, 2018 23:08:55 GMT
Continuing from above, I also I felt it was dishonest of HououinKyouma to leave you out of that category, which was a point I wanted to address. hououinkyouma, my thoughts are that you're making the second most reasonable propositions behind Flop. However, you're also saying things that worry me the second most (behind vj). I hope it doesn't seem like I'm actively contradicting you, because I can agree with a lot of what you have to say. However, I just want to see if I can change your mind about your mantra of targeting experienced players, though I will agree it's healthy to maintain a small dose of skepticism.
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Post by hououinkyouma on Nov 18, 2018 23:16:51 GMT
My post was really incendiary. Everyone except for Jbdavies15 has spoken since then. Right now we had discussions on Zaiden and Arnie. I'm fairly confident in some of my town reads currently hence I'm pushing for a eliminate on Arnie. ArnieDelsey : You clearly said you don't think you have a good role and taking a step back. You haven't really contributed much of substance, although enough to sway some players. You haven't actively scumhunt, it seems you're content and nonchalant at the moment. Zaiden: It's interesting that you partially claimed there. But honestly with us divided lynching Arnie is the best for reads. With his flip, we can go back to see how it started and developed if he's town. And if he flips mafia, then we can see who has been reading him as neutral or defending him/deflecting away from him. I'm willing to put my life on the line for a eliminate on Arnie D1. I believe we actually have enough experienced players in the game even without Arnie. Sam, Distributive, Aurimas, Zaiden, Arnie have at least one forum mafia game of experience. Me and Flop have experience in forum mafia. Literally we really only have 5 newbies who imo, most of them will or rather are learning fast. Jbdavies15 at this rate might be replaced by someone with more experience. So technically we have an abundance of experienced/semi-experienced players. Is anyone really that afraid of losing one or two experience member by start of D2?
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 18, 2018 23:18:00 GMT
Elements, I've also realised why you could be suspicious of me. For the record, I want to clarify that the quote on my profile has nothing to do with my leader. This quote has been there since about a year ago, and I'm sure that other people can testify to this.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 18, 2018 23:22:33 GMT
I'm not quite willing to put my life on the line to divert a eliminate from Arnie. I do believe we have enough experienced players in the game, and beginners who will quickly pick up (I recall Em from the previous game). But I personally do not want to see Arnie lynched. Putting my statistical bias aside, I believe that anyone experienced should have a good guess for what he is, based on how he's played. This is giving me some... flashbacks to James making a mistake in another game.
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Nov 18, 2018 23:54:03 GMT
My vote will count twice today. I think this is all the evidence I need to suspect you scum Zaiden. I appreciate the defence on my part, but it's also giving me serious vibes of a previous game where I was mafia and protected Barry(was town that game) against a bandwagon. This role ability sufficiently acts against one of my own and realistically am 70% sure that you're scum (80/20 mafia favoured). Vote: ZaidenI expect no traction other than towards my own eliminate so that my death can further confirm the suspicion of Zaiden's ability claim.
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sam
Dreaming God
Posts: 609
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Post by sam on Nov 18, 2018 23:54:32 GMT
I have to say I'm having trouble with some of the people who I can't put a face to - I find it much easier to read people when I know who they are irl.
I'm not totally sure what HK's push for a eliminate on Arnie is about, his posts so far have been very par for the course, and I really don't see him as a likely mafia. Maybe I've just played a bit too much with him, but there's something about the way he plays as scum which is not present here. Lynching is still preferable to not lynching though, and so if Arnie is the only pick that everyone will go with then so be it.
Flop stands out to me of the people I don't know irl as a strong player, and I agree with most of what they've said thus far.
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sam
Dreaming God
Posts: 609
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Post by sam on Nov 18, 2018 23:56:41 GMT
I think this is all the evidence I need to suspect you scum Zaiden. I appreciate the defence on my part, but it's also giving me serious vibes of a previous game where I was mafia and protected Barry(was town that game) against a bandwagon. This role ability sufficiently acts against one of my own and realistically am 70% sure that you're scum (80/20 mafia favoured). Are you willing to elaborate on the bit in italics? How blatant is the opposition of your two abilities?
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Post by hououinkyouma on Nov 19, 2018 0:01:25 GMT
Zaiden : How confident are you that Arnie is town percentage wise from 0-100% ArnieDelsey : You make a fair point about Zaiden there. I don't particularly like how Zaiden is defending you. However I would like to see you lynched to see how it makes it more apparent that Zaiden is scum. You're giving me more reason to want to eliminate you. Obviously all 3 of you, me, and Zaiden could still be town. However on a sliding scale of 0-100%. You're currently sitting at 65% scum. And at 100% with your flip leading to more info on the game.
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Post by hououinkyouma on Nov 19, 2018 0:04:06 GMT
I have to say I'm having trouble with some of the people who I can't put a face to - I find it much easier to read people when I know who they are irl. I'm not totally sure what HK's push for a eliminate on Arnie is about, his posts so far have been very par for the course, and I really don't see him as a likely mafia. Maybe I've just played a bit too much with him, but there's something about the way he plays as scum which is not present here. Lynching is still preferable to not lynching though, and so if Arnie is the only pick that everyone will go with then so be it. Flop stands out to me of the people I don't know irl as a strong player, and I agree with most of what they've said thus far. sam: Flop hasn't hid her identity at all, we've just didn't notice she already revealed who she was. I think you must have at least played with her once if you were at mafia society this year.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 19, 2018 0:06:25 GMT
In my defence, it's a oneshot passive ability I have no control over, though I do have exactly one other ability. The stipulation is that D1 my votes count for two. I thought it would be better to make this clarification now, because otherwise, people could get confused and waste time on wondering why someone died one eliminate early. I don't see how this could directly contradict your abilities, unless you're a mayor too. If you're claiming mayor, then I would have to consider you scum - unless it's a setup where someone could have one shot of an ability while a permanent version of the ability exists in the game.
As for Arnie, I had assumed he was a treestump. After being lynched, you can still continue contributing after you die. But if my attempts at diverting the eliminate away from him provoked such an adverse reaction, I'm willing to entertain the possibility that Arnie is Jester.
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Post by Zaiden on Nov 19, 2018 0:14:12 GMT
At first, I complained to a person outside of the game about the earlier wagon against me. They encouraged me to look past my emotions and focus on pursuing the truth. My gut told me that it's unlikely for Arnie to be mafia three games in a row. I really disliked how he was advocating for a kill onto himself, but I believe if he was jester/mafia, he'd be a lot more subtle than that. Though I'm happy to be proven wrong.
As for my numerical estimates: Arnie is 55% town, 35% third party, 10% mafia. I know I said he definitely wasn't mafia earlier, but that an exaggeration because I suddenly realised he was playing like what you'd expect of a tree stump, and I was just eager to prevent a eliminate onto an individual whose townliness people were overlooking.
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