Tom
Private Investigator
Posts: 373
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Post by Tom on Dec 15, 2022 12:04:41 GMT
Also, I know no one probably cares, but I feel more motivated to play this game now after these last few posts. There's a lot of stuff to get into I think now that we've gotten past the fluffy nothing posts from the start.
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Post by Elements on Dec 15, 2022 12:11:10 GMT
Vote count 1.4Current votes Daisy S-3: Ashera, Demesne King
Tom S-4: Nick
Ashera S-4: TomNick G S-4: DaisyNot voting: Luke, Molly, HannahWith 8 alive it takes 5 to treestump someone. Link to the rules
Link to previous votecountLink to next votecountDay 1 will end either when a player reaches a majority of votes or at whatever time I wake up on Monday the 19th
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Post by Daisy on Dec 15, 2022 13:23:23 GMT
This is a very interesting bit of a meta Daisy. I will be 100% honest though, this is the kind of post that would look very bad if nick flips town. I could totally see this post coming from a mafia who is just looking to get nick killed then stump themselves and laugh at us. Idk, something about the wording of this is off. Like it seems a bit too self-aware and more concerned with keeping up appearances than being a genuine read? Idk. Either way, I doubt daisy/nick are two mafia. Honestly if I was mafia, my strategy to handle Nick would be completely different. I know the only person who panics as much as me in final 3's is Nick, and we have a bit of a history there, so I'd keep him alive and then put Nick & I into the final 3, basically making it a 1v1 instantly because of the meta around us. I guess it would be more "optimal" for me to get stumped but I feel like I'd like to prove to Nick how much of a better player I've become this year by pulling that strat off. Nick should be able to back up that our final 3 meta exists when he's next around
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Post by Nick G on Dec 15, 2022 14:52:19 GMT
Daisy / TomI will confirm that there is a history of final 3s involving myself and Daisy that has resulted in a certain level of paranoia for both of us whenever it occurs. (We were opposite alignments in several final 3s in a relatively short time period, some of which were intentionally engineered for one reason or another. This has been subsequently engineered by one of us, or another player seeking to make the two of us focus on each other.) I hadn’t mentioned this meta yet precisely because I thought someone else may attempt to engineer it (and if it happened without being mentioned, I would know that Daisy did it, or it had nothing to do with the history). However: - Creating this would be an extremely risky move for Daisy as Mafia. Daisy should know that I would have an inherent bias towards voting for them in a final 3, particular if I thought others were unaware of the meta at the time the final 3 was chosen.
- It feels like it would be generally optimal for whichever Mafia carries out the “killing blow” to be Treestumped, although I suppose there is a situation in which you leave them alive to make them look like an unfortunate Townie that Mafia has left alive to act as a distraction.
- As I’ve said before, I think Daisy could have done their claimed reveal of my defensive meta as either alignment, same as now revealing the final 3 meta. If Town, then it’s a semi-legitimate “but as Mafia I would do this”. As Mafia, revealing this final 3 history to everyone is actually slightly advantageous because it means that they could blame others for engineering the situation.
I am now going to be going in circles as to whether there is any particular benefit for either Town Daisy or Mafia Daisy in playing this particular combination of “moves” around the personal metas.
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Tom
Private Investigator
Posts: 373
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Post by Tom on Dec 15, 2022 15:11:32 GMT
Missed it by this much... Sorry my fault, didn't realise ;-;
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Post by Daisy on Dec 15, 2022 15:21:10 GMT
I am now going to be going in circles as to whether there is any particular benefit for either Town Daisy or Mafia Daisy in playing this particular combination of “moves” around the personal metas.
I just did it to increase the liklihood of it happening. Since I'm not mafia I can't effect the decision being made for the most part, but saying this now incentivises the mafia to put us together in the final 3
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Post by luke on Dec 15, 2022 15:57:04 GMT
3) I now think that Hannah, Daisy and Tom are Town, less sure on Nick but not as suspicious of him as I was. I'm sensing a lot of appetite in the thread for an Ashera Remind me why you think Daisy is town, king. I'll admit that it was partly based on the early posting which seemed quite open - such as 'who wants to 1v1'. But I think I'm right on this one. 1) I'd categorise her posting as 'active' rather than 'reactive', whereas in the last forum game (Daisy was Serial Killer) her posting felt quite reactive and defensive. 2) Tonally Daisy seems more relaxed this game, there was a jokey feel last game as well but it felt a bit forced. 3) I don't recall seeing a comparable readslist to her recent one (size-wise or content-wise) but maybe I just don't remember.
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Post by luke on Dec 15, 2022 16:00:27 GMT
Ok! Back home, read all the posts and I think I'm more confident in making a reads list? Firstly though I guess out of like, anything notable not reads related I think that the whole debate over purple text is pointless as all heck. I really don't know how it's relevant in any way to the conversation As for reads! Town: Tom: Tom I feel like is playing in a very Tom way? And that usually means town. Hannah: I think Hannah just gives me the vibes I feel like I gave off during my first forum mafia game, so I wanna say town Neutral (as in my feelings and not the role type): Ashera: I can't really get a proper read on them, and I definitely don't want to fully go town after last game, but I do like to believe they wouldn't go with the "Go on, eliminate me" strategy as a mafia? Feels really standout-y. Neutral-ish feelings but with a town lean Daisy: Also neutral with a town lean. It would be town but that's what I thought last time and then she was a serial killer so I'd rather be on the safe side and not be too trusting DK: DK gives me the vibes of someone who could flawlessly blend into either role and I don't think any actions DK has done have been particularly allignment indicative so eh. Mafia: Either Luke or Nick G. I feel like it's one of the two of them, don't know which one. Both of them give the vibes of "Active as a cover rather than for town reasons". Still don't wanna plant a vote cuz we have a few days left and I don't want it to accidentally cause an errant stump. Cuz if we were all stumping errantly, there would be no more forests anymore! Uh, if anyone wants to ask me any questions lemme know, I have no idea what we can talk about here lmao Would you say you can usually read Ashera IRL? You mention they weren't Town last game, did you think they were? Do you think that 'the average mafia' wouldn't go for the happy-to-be-voted strategy, or specifically Ashera as mafia?
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Post by luke on Dec 15, 2022 16:10:23 GMT
At the moment, I think [Ashera, Demesne King, Nick] contain both Mafia.
Vote: Ashera
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Molly
RNJesus
That's a nice thing you've said! Let's see how I can relate it back to Ratchet and Clank
Posts: 104
Pronoun: She/Her
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Post by Molly on Dec 15, 2022 18:52:44 GMT
Would you say you can usually read Ashera IRL? You mention they weren't Town last game, did you think they were? Do you think that 'the average mafia' wouldn't go for the happy-to-be-voted strategy, or specifically Ashera as mafia? -Sometimes? Sometimes I kinda can but sometimes I completely flop like a fish -I didn't think they were town but I believed the claim of compulsive bodyguard survivor like a dummy -I think specifically Ashera as mafia? Iunno, feels very bold and forward of a play for them
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Molly
RNJesus
That's a nice thing you've said! Let's see how I can relate it back to Ratchet and Clank
Posts: 104
Pronoun: She/Her
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Post by Molly on Dec 15, 2022 19:01:02 GMT
Yeah this might be hypocritical coming from me but do you have any specific luke/nick posts you can quote that back up what you're saying here? It'd be interesting. I don't really have any specific posts themselves, it's more just like... the two of them seem to be, how to phrase this, very active in a way that seems to contribute a lot to town, and I feel like that's a perfect position for an evil person to find themselves in? I hope that makes sense.
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Post by Nick G on Dec 15, 2022 19:24:52 GMT
Daisy- Really? And here I was starting to hope I’d get either voted or treestumped overnight so that I could focus on analysing other players.
- You say “incentivises the Mafia to put us together in the final 3”. I may be reading too much into the exact wording, but that seems to imply you think I’m not one of the Mafia? Has your read on me switched again?
luke- Is there a particular reason I’ve got (effectively) a 66% chance of being Mafia, according to you? I’m asking partially because I believe your last comment about me was that your suspicion on me was somewhat reduced. Is it PoE, or something new, or is it simply that I’ve gone from being “100% Mafia” to “probably Mafia”?
Molly- I’d say Ashera was actually in a relatively safe position to play the “you may as well vote me” position. There wasn’t much pressure on them (I don’t think?) at that time, so it is unlikely that they’d be at risk of being voted off before momentum changed. If they’d been 1-2 votes from treestumping, it would have come off as either dejected Town or Mafia attempting to guilt trip by pretending to be dejected Town. I’m not saying it makes them suspicious, but that on its own isn’t necessarily Townie.
- Contributing a lot to Town isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It can be powerful for evil, but it can also be powerful for good. While I understand the paranoia, if we’re not attempting to significantly manipulate the Town, I’m not sure that it automatically makes us top suspects? Although I don’t know if I’m contributing a lot to Town, particularly recently: my strongest read has been, for the most part, actively ignored by almost every other player in the lobby, and there are several players I’m yet to form an opinion on.
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Post by Daisy on Dec 15, 2022 19:41:01 GMT
Daisy - Really? And here I was starting to hope I’d get either voted or treestumped overnight so that I could focus on analysing other players.
- You say “incentivises the Mafia to put us together in the final 3”. I may be reading too much into the exact wording, but that seems to imply you think I’m not one of the Mafia? Has your read on me switched again?
sdlkgh sorryyyyy. nah I still scumread you but a scumread doesn't mean you're 100% mafia of course, i'd say there's like a 25% chance you're mafia, it's just the strongest read i have right now. the world where we're both town is still very possible, and definitely worth considering.
i'll be honest i just like the idea of me stating this meta fucking with whatever plan the mafia has in terms of their choice for the final 3 lmao.
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Post by Nick G on Dec 15, 2022 20:22:45 GMT
Daisy- I did think I was likely reading too much into the wording, but it was worth asking given the dynamic nature of your reads on me.
- It may have messed up the Mafia’s plans (if indeed you aren’t part of the Mafia), but it has likely messed up mine as well, due to increased likelihood of meta-related paranoia playing a role. I somewhat suspected that I would be alive for the final 3: I’d be a relatively easy push, given how the game seems to be going so far.
On a related note, did you have any thoughts/comments on my response to your claim about my personal meta? It does feel odd to make that serious a read/push, and then to completely ignore my response to it.
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Post by Daisy on Dec 15, 2022 20:33:53 GMT
Daisy - I did think I was likely reading too much into the wording, but it was worth asking given the dynamic nature of your reads on me.
- It may have messed up the Mafia’s plans (if indeed you aren’t part of the Mafia), but it has likely messed up mine as well, due to increased likelihood of meta-related paranoia playing a role. I somewhat suspected that I would be alive for the final 3: I’d be a relatively easy push, given how the game seems to be going so far.
On a related note, did you have any thoughts/comments on my response to your claim about my personal meta? It does feel odd to make that serious a read/push, and then to completely ignore my response to it.
Not really, I thought the response was very Nick but nothing in there made me view you as more townie/less scummy so didn't feel the need to comment on anything there.
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Post by Nick G on Dec 15, 2022 21:29:54 GMT
Daisy: okay, I’ll bite. I’ve been working out whether or not I want to go down this rabbit hole, but I feel like I want to address it clearly. You make a major read flip on me based entirely on my interactions with Tom and your understanding of my scum meta, but have absolutely nothing to say about my response/evaluation except “the response is very Nick”? There were a number of people who were keen to point out the potentially scummy nature of my NAI mechanics-related content and say that I’m not saying anything of substance, but when I do commit to an evidenced read and push, the entire acknowledgement/evaluation of that interaction comes down to “[Tom] plays Town a bit weirdly”, “you’re sidestepping” and “you’re scum because you’re passionately defensive”. If I’m that suspicious and/or heading in completely the wrong direction, it’s honestly worth voting for me today, because if I’m not voted I’m rather sure that the Mafia won’t treestump me in the nightphase (even without Daisy’s final 3 meta reveal), and that’s going to be a distraction (for me as well, as it would be easier to analyse as a Treestump) in the last dayphase.
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Post by ashera on Dec 16, 2022 1:36:31 GMT
In terms of reads, I have no reads.
No seriously guys, when I say this day 1 feels arbitrary to me (to me), I mean I can’t hecking read anyone. Anyone could say anything (in my opinion), and (for me) I am struggling to parse everything that’s being said without first having something to know. Sorry for not saying much but it’s truly because I have nothing to add
But I’m getting town vibes from Hannah, I think she’s chill.
All I feel I can aim to do is get myself read as town, which doesn’t seem to be working right now.
Unvote: Daisy Vote: Ashera
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Post by Daisy on Dec 16, 2022 10:09:59 GMT
sdlgkj ok we have two people who wanna be voted out now this is interesting.
I do think Nick has a point tho, he clearly doesn't wanna be in that final 3 scenario and wants to do anything to avoid it, and now that the mafia are aware of his weakness there (haha sorryyyy) there's a much stronger chance he ends up in it if not voted out today. Sure again wanting to be voted out makes Nick look a lil bit less scummy, but I understand his reasoning more than Ashera's. If Ashera believes their reads will get better once there are flips, why should we want them out of the game today?
As a sorta FYI to Nick I think we've come away from the more full-on logic/evidence kinda plays this year in mafia. Might be why I (and others) have struggled to rly engage in a lot of what you've said since we're more used to sorta vibe-reading and the like. I know that's probably really frustrating for you as that's your forte but ay what can ya do.
Reason I haven't moved my vote off of Nick is that now it's a win/win. We either get a fully-focused Nick on duty looking at the final 3 as an outsider, or I get to vote one of my scumreads out.
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Post by Daisy on Dec 16, 2022 13:06:01 GMT
Also @demesne_king (I've got no idea how to ping people with a space in their name sfdgkljh) I got bored and looked at all the name lists in every single forum mafia game there's been on this website, and found no Sally. Did you play under a pseudonym back in the day, or is this your first time playing forum mafia w/ the society?
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Post by Daisy on Dec 16, 2022 13:08:14 GMT
Or tbf you coulda just changed names, there's a game on this website under my deadname so it could be that too sfgdlkj
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Post by Daisy on Dec 16, 2022 13:15:47 GMT
And actually wait yea that's a rly personal question nvm scratch that I didn't ask anything
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Post by luke on Dec 16, 2022 13:29:06 GMT
I don't really know what to make of the self-vote.
Nick, I'm not sure. You could be town, I could be wrong on my other townreads. Those townreads are what I based my poe on.
I could vote Demesne King or Nick if it has support
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Post by Nick G on Dec 16, 2022 18:15:07 GMT
Letting it get to you. You know what that’s called? Being alive. Best thing there is. Being alive right now is all that counts.Daisy- I wouldn’t say I’m necessarily ‘weak’ in final 3 scenarios (I never counted my record like Daisy did, but I remember it being reasonable for a while), but I can end up over-analysing or stuck in paranoia-related WIFOM (although that last part tends to be based upon which players are left alive).
- Everyone’s reads will get better when people are flipped (I hope). Everyone can still talk in the final day (although I assume the stumped Mafia won’t do much as no-one is likely to listen to a known Mafia). So I don’t think that part actually helps either way as to whether to vote Ashera - it’s simply irrelevant in my opinion due to the setup mechanics.
- So if I say “Tom is giving me a bad feeling because he has been evasive and misleading”, is that at least closer to the society meta? Because that’s what it boils down to, I just like to give evidence for those claims.
- It’s not only not my forte, it’s actually going to mess with my reads on people: traditionally, giving unsubstantiated reads (especially once there has been enough time to get some discussion to draw evidence from) is usually a Mafia-indicative trait, and publicly lying to get a result is so anti-Town that there is an agreed policy in certain Mafia forums called “eliminate/Exile All Liars”.
On Ashera’s last post:- The post reads as dejected Town. It could be Mafia playing at that, but I’m not convinced, especially with the below point.
- Self-votes by either alignment are possible, but doing this to push yourself over halfway to Treestumping (especially in such a small setup) is extremely risky if you are Mafia. I’m not guaranteeing it (as Town are unlikely to hammer quickly, so you could switch the momentum before the dayphase ends), but it feels more likely to be Town.
Personally, I’m not going to self-vote until I can work out when or whether it is tactically beneficial for the Town to do so. It might help my play tomorrow to not have to defend, but we still have a chance to get Mafia out today, and just over 2 days left to gather more information. I’m happy to be voted out on plurality or a late majority, but I’m not going to hasten it when I’ve still got a strong scumread on Tom.
On Tom, maybe I’m tunnelling, but something else is “pinging” me. His response to Daisy’s claim about my scum meta felt like a setup to keep Daisy for final 3 and use this as an excuse to push her. This could be confirmation bias at this point though.
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Molly
RNJesus
That's a nice thing you've said! Let's see how I can relate it back to Ratchet and Clank
Posts: 104
Pronoun: She/Her
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Post by Molly on Dec 16, 2022 20:56:42 GMT
Personally Ashera's vote makes me think town, unless this is massive big brain mafia plays in which case I'll just accept I cannot read Ashera in forum games. (Hey Guys, Peter Griffin here with the joke. You see, in forum games, you read the text that others write on the screen, making not being able to read Ashera a double meaning.)
I think the way I look at it at this point, I know I'm town and I'm town reading Ashera, Hannah and Tom, meaning the two mafia would be between Daisy, DK, Luke and Nick G, which is a 50/50 chance I guess? Don't really know what to do with that information though.
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Post by Daisy on Dec 16, 2022 21:41:29 GMT
Daisy - So if I say “Tom is giving me a bad feeling because he has been evasive and misleading”, is that at least closer to the society meta? Because that’s what it boils down to, I just like to give evidence for those claims.
- It’s not only not my forte, it’s actually going to mess with my reads on people: traditionally, giving unsubstantiated reads (especially once there has been enough time to get some discussion to draw evidence from) is usually a Mafia-indicative trait, and publicly lying to get a result is so anti-Town that there is an agreed policy in certain Mafia forums called “eliminate/Exile All Liars”.
Yea I mean it's tricky to define like the full society meta but kinda. It's not that people lie but people are just a lil less passionate about their reads/defending themselves it's a lot more about just sorta chilling out and hanging out w/ friends. I know I was caught off guard when you started playing your style this game cause I just wasn't used to playing with someone like that in a while fsklg;j.
All that to say sure maybe smth like that woulda been easier, or maybe a TL:DR at the end of the bigger posts to get the big points across? I'm not too sure. When I talk about how I became one of the more logical players, I'm not sure it's cause my playstyle itself has changed that much, I think it's just how the society has changed around me. Who knows as I said it's rly hard to define.
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Post by luke on Dec 16, 2022 22:26:44 GMT
Daisy , is Luke being actively suspicious in your opinion, or is this another lighthearted attempt like your page 2 rally against me? hannah - You never need to apologise for questions! It’s easy to forget that some people haven’t seen the terminology before.
- Molly explained it well. NAI is Non-Alignment Indicative, basically behaviour that doesn’t make someone look like Mafia or Town. (This can vary from player to player - what might be, say, suspicious for most people, may be NAI behaviour for a specific person.) WIFOM is Wine In Front Of Me, and generally boils down to there being endless reasons and counter-reasons for a particular action/situation/result (such as the endless “do they know that I know that they know that I know that…?”).
Tom
- 1 vote from someone known for throwing around silly votes in early Day 1 is hardly a “wagon” on Luke. While you may read it as pure, throwing out a lot of reads with little in the way of evidence/substance is easy to do as either alignment, and the lack of substance undermines his scumread on me for not automatically having the same read as him on Daisy.
- I obviously don’t have particularly recent experience of Daisy’s playstyle, but I’ve seen them tunnel on someone as Town (I believe they did so at times in the CardWolf forum game) and have their reads flit around as Mafia while trying to see what sticks. Despite the fact that I should have the best chance of reading them due to having played more with them than with anyone else, I haven’t managed to make up my mind on them yet in this game.
- Obviously I don’t know Hannah, but I’m confused as to how you have any sort of read on Hannah? The posts so far haven’t been particularly game-related with the exception of the NAI/WIFOM question. (I don’t think she’s necessarily suspicious - I’m not sure what she’s done that could actually indicate an alignment.)
- Yes, I could be saying all this as Mafia. I have tried, over my time in Mafia, not to have a particular difference in playstyle when playing different alignments, as it tends to be a drawback once established. (What inferences there have been over time, e.g. the belief that my use of vote spreadsheets in Discord Mafia was a Townie thing to do, were made by other players and not reinforced by myself.) But as I’ve said to Luke, saying that I could do something as Mafia doesn’t mean I am Mafia.
I was actually planning to vote you to stir up some conversation by targeting a quiet person (as most of the rest of this post was written by the time that you posted), but now I’d like to follow through on it because I’m not sure I entirely “trust” some of the reads you’ve given.
Vote: Tom
And I heard it, calling to me...Drums. The never-ending drums...
I don't think I gave this post enough attention on the first read of it. It's making me consider Town!Nick more seriously, so I'll try to explain my Tom read in more detail than just 'weird Town meta read'. Maybe it's my own position that's making me think this, but I did feel I came under some suspicion earlier in the game (at the time Tom called it a wagon on me). I think your point here is purely a semantic one. It's perfectly plausible that Tom would refer to suspicion, and not necessarily votes, as a 'wagon', whether or not there was a wagon by definition. Whether or not Tom's townread of Daisy is correct, I know I also felt that way early game (and still do), so I can believe that it was founded and a genuine thought. Similarly with Hannah, I think if you had played with Hannah IRL you might not have called that read presumptive (not that I'm completely certain of her alignment but I definitely agree that her early posting seemed natural and warranted a townlean at least).
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Tom
Private Investigator
Posts: 373
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Post by Tom on Dec 16, 2022 23:06:32 GMT
In terms of reads, I have no reads.
No seriously guys, when I say this day 1 feels arbitrary to me (to me), I mean I can’t hecking read anyone. Anyone could say anything (in my opinion), and (for me) I am struggling to parse everything that’s being said without first having something to know. Sorry for not saying much but it’s truly because I have nothing to add
But I’m getting town vibes from Hannah, I think she’s chill.
All I feel I can aim to do is get myself read as town, which doesn’t seem to be working right now.
Unvote: Daisy Vote: Ashera Uh oh.
UNVOTE: ashera
It's vibin time
VOTE: Daisy
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Post by Elements on Dec 17, 2022 8:06:27 GMT
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Post by Elements on Dec 17, 2022 8:06:36 GMT
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Post by Elements on Dec 17, 2022 8:06:42 GMT
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