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Post by mohneesh on Jul 16, 2018 21:29:43 GMT
My role has nothing to do with memes. Hectic makes a good point about Arnie's latest meme, the cookie monster one seemed very unnecessary and irrelevant.
Also someone suggested that there'll be a vig if there's an SK, but I don't agree with that. That's potentially 3 kills in the night. If there's an SK I think it's likely we have more than one healer(doc + bg?).
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Post by Catpain Blackudder on Jul 16, 2018 21:45:56 GMT
My role has nothing to do with memes. Hectic makes a good point about Arnie's latest meme, the cookie monster one seemed very unnecessary and irrelevant. Also someone suggested that there'll be a vig if there's an SK, but I don't agree with that. That's potentially 3 kills in the night. If there's an SK I think it's likely we have more than one healer(doc + bg?). I think multi-healers/protectors is possible, or even likely. And it is potentially 3 kills in one night, but vig typically has limited shots, and people are theorising it might be the same for SK to keep it balanced (which was apparently the case in a previous game? I think someone mentioned that.)
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Post by Catpain Blackudder on Jul 16, 2018 21:47:00 GMT
Regardless, we'll likely find out 'tomorrow' morning
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Post by distributive on Jul 16, 2018 22:33:21 GMT
Oh boy, some developments seem to have occurred since I last checked in.
For the record, my role mentions no memes. But in the interests of maintaining no discernible meme pattern (specifically how I've not posted any memes) I will make this post a loss meme and am happy to post memes whenever requested to.
btw, Ben, I voted for DefinitelyNotMafia earlier in the game which you seemed to have missed. I likely will change that but it's been a long day so I'll go through the most recent posts properly tomorrow.
I hopefully should be more active from now on. E x p e c t
a
n e w
v o t e
f r o m
m e
t o m o r r o w
m o r n i n g .
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Post by . on Jul 17, 2018 7:24:57 GMT
Vote: Aurimas What's your current thoughts on what's been said Aurimas? My thoughts on what exactly? For the game setup, I think since it is likely we have a serial killer, it should be a 10v3v1 setup with some power roles to help town, and maybe a limited killing ability for the SK. For the memes, since Ben said "There may or may not be roles which interact with meme posting" and included a memecount with a vote count, I think it is likely that the memes do have some impact on the game.
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Post by . on Jul 17, 2018 8:42:41 GMT
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Post by jcraster on Jul 17, 2018 9:34:19 GMT
Someone other than arnie/hectic should take the lead on the memecount. The fact ben posted the memecount suggests that it is relevant. It's a fair amount of effort to commit to count memes all game, so I don't think it is itself a meme. 10v3v1 still seems most likely. There probably is a vig, although I'm less inclined to believe there are 2 protectives.
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Jul 17, 2018 11:30:00 GMT
Just a recap so far below on memeposting claims. Sam: "my role does not relate to meme posting." DNM: "My role doesn't relate to meme posting." taran: "My role doesn't have any links to memes" aurimas: "My role does not relate to meme posting." hectic: "My role has nothing to do with posting memes." thefakeprophet: "my role has nothing to do with meme posting." CaptainBlackudder: "My role has nothing to do with memes." jcraster: "My role has nothing to do with meme posting." James: "my role doesn't have anything to do with meme posting." jackoclypse: "My role has nothing to do with the meme count" mohneesh: "My role has nothing to do with memes." distributive: "For the record, my role mentions no memes." em716: Nothing Me: Want to clarify something with Ben first before I say anything.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 17, 2018 12:10:33 GMT
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Post by Hectic on Jul 17, 2018 12:14:03 GMT
ArnieDelsey : Don't know why I didn't notice earlier but you did heavily hint it by nor confirming or denying it when you brought it up. Very interested to hear your relation, and if it involves meeting a condition such as having the most by the end, a role claim may be necessary to convince us you're not mafia or third party.
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Post by distributive on Jul 17, 2018 12:56:16 GMT
I think with the growing possibility of memes affecting the game, I'd very much like hectic to stop posting them altogether. He's shown a specific willing to not be first place in the memecount, so this shouldn't be cause to much argument. I'm pleased to see I may have made it more difficult for an evil role who's objective was to post the most memes in the day or something of that sort, though a town role could also have this condition. I agree that there could well be a meme-related role in the game. My thoughts are there might be a 3rd party role who wins for meeting some threshold of memeposts, or maybe two competing roles (maybe town vs mafia) who benefit somehow from a higher meme count. Keep an eye on any competition. Someone other than arnie/hectic should take the lead on the memecount. Please do. Finally, I know he's not the only quiet one, but I don't like how little Sam has said this game. I know he's quite busy during the day but very little of what he's said has felt substantial. Knowing Sam from outside forum mafia I very much doubt he has no thoughts on the current game, so until he stops skirting around his apparently-notable role: VOTE: samAttachments:
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Post by distributive on Jul 17, 2018 12:57:12 GMT
Oh, I didn't mean to leave that meme there.
Ah well, enjoy anyway.
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Post by Hectic on Jul 17, 2018 13:08:44 GMT
distributive: Alright, I guess I can restrain myself from posting anymore for the rest of the day, though I'd like the same from ArnieDelsey until he claims properly. Also, I don't think it'd be a bad idea to get some preliminary reads lists, always leads to useful discussion and interactions. I'll post mine when I have some time later.
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Post by thefakeprophet on Jul 17, 2018 13:18:40 GMT
.: I apologise, I thought that profile pic belonged to someone else and thought you hadn't said anything yet. I was a bit tired yesterday, must have misread your name. Unvote: Aurimas I'll try and read all the posts later this evening. Currently on my lunch break on my phone. I can share my preliminary reads later tonight to if we agree it'll be useful to look back on.
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Post by DefinitelyNotMafia on Jul 17, 2018 14:14:59 GMT
Some quality memes today guys. I was definitely leaning towards memes not being a part of the game, as Ben's comment/memecount was only after Em asked about memes, but with what Arnie said... I was probably wrong. I can put together some more thoughts/reads later although not quite sure how much I have yet.
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Post by distributive on Jul 17, 2018 15:56:40 GMT
Hectic I agree, although I'd also maybe like to see you both end the day on the same number of memes, just to be safe. I was half tempted to suggest we vote on who we want to have the most memes at the end of each day, but that feels like it might be an unnecessary waste of time and debate. I would like for everyone to post at least one meme throughout the course of the game, and for a different person to have the most memes each day. Although at the same time that might be someone's win con, so I'm not married to the idea. It's hard to be sure what kind of role could actually be in play here. After that bs 3rd-party role Arnie put in place last game pretty much anything is plausible.
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Jul 17, 2018 16:26:50 GMT
*breathes in* Alright hooligans, hol' onto yer butts because we got ourselves juan smol problemo. I never had intention of withholding that my role related to the meme count as you could probably tell from my previous posts. But here's what confuses me: NOT ONE other person claims to relate to this memecount. This in turn makes me believe we got ourselves a liar. I think I got too excited about my role relating to meme posting that I've been slightly careless in that regard and as such have swayed anyone else against revealing that they too have meme-posting conditionals. Now I'm not gonna be outright role-claiming, since that is irresponsibly stupid and not favourable at all at this point in time, but hectic's recent post with respect to this makes me concerned. Anyhow, what I will say is that I don't need to be top of that memecount, but would very much like to be somewhat high on that list (3rd or 4th is fine with me). What I will say is that my role becomes useless if I post 0 memes, and the more I post, the more useful my role is. Consider my memeposting as an enabling action to an ability. There may also penalties for attempted abuse of meme spamming (I don't know is everyone got this, so sorry if this is trivial). IMPORTANT: My role has a conditional related to memes BUT I want to mention that this should NOT warrant a memecount if my role is the only one that relates to memeposting. This is because I think it would make more sense to just use an external one for just me. My role PM in no way indicates the existence of a memecounter and can now only suspect that an evil role has a motivation to post memes in order for that memecount to be an openly revealed mechanic. I'm guessing this is like the substitute for the item-voting we had last game. It's my understanding that non-funny memes or non-relevant memes don't count, with leniency on people's first meme of the day, as well as shouldn't be counting recently used meme formats, or one being too similar to previous memes posted by the same person. Of course anyone is free to test all this at the discrection of Ben, but imo its not worth checking since: 1. You'll piss off Ben. 2. Ben will get pissed with me and we'll likely never see this cool mechanic put in place ever again. 3. It deviates us off track. Here's why I'm still keeping my vote on James until he gives me good reason otherwise: Personally I am in favour that all memes be OC and relevant Now this may just look like an offhanded comment, but what strikes me is that it is nearly word for word (prefer instead of in favour) what I also received in my role PM following what should count towards my daily meme count. Which makes me think he got the same message too and is lying about his association with meme posting.
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ArnieDelsey
Dreaming God
Dont let my avatar fool you, I'm actually mafia.
Posts: 639
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Post by ArnieDelsey on Jul 17, 2018 16:27:30 GMT
It's hard to be sure what kind of role could actually be in play here. After that bs 3rd-party role Arnie put in place last game pretty much anything is plausible. Haha thanks!
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Post by distributive on Jul 17, 2018 16:54:05 GMT
For the record, I'm not complaining
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Post by DefinitelyNotMafia on Jul 17, 2018 18:36:17 GMT
...well thanks for that reveal. hm. I agree it seems unlikely that you're the only one to have a role related to meme posting, although I'm not sure on James. That comment feels too much of a silly mistake if he's then gone onto say meme posting isn't relevant to his role. Em also hasn't confirmed her role (but with the question she asked I'm leaning towards it not being her, either)
reads coming soon from me
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Post by thefakeprophet on Jul 17, 2018 18:55:18 GMT
@jack: I didn't particularly like you coming out with the info that your role suggests that there's a 95% chance a SK is in the game. You probably should have clarified something with Ben first, although I assume he would have told you something like, "Your role doesn't necessarily mean a SK is in the game" or equivalent. I can see why you would say that if you were town but I can also see you as mafia trying to cause confusion, and add an additional element while deflecting away from mafia. I still can't see SK being in a game of 14 players but I guess I'm the guy that is most skeptical of it here. That said Jack is neutral town to me.
This leads me onto ArnieDelsey: Your part-claim is worrying me a bit, it made me wary of you regardless if you are town either memeing a bit too much, or mafia making a ballsy claim. However in previous games, you have done this both as town and mafia. You never do let a good chance get away especially as this is a meme-related game, I hope you don't get carried away with your memes and regret it later. I have a neutral scum read on you possibly due to bias.
Hectic: Although the only down side anyone has on you is that you lead the memecount. You're a slight town lean for me and my strongest town read so far, as it seems you're more active than the last few games, and seem to be genuinely trying to help town and offering good contributions.
As for my other town read, I actually have DNM as a slight town lean also. The rest of my reads are mostly neutral, some more neutral town like James and jcraster.
em716: I'm currently giving you the benefit of the doubt since you're new to mafia.
taran: I'm still waiting for your questions and answers. I'm interested to hear from you what you think about the reveals so far, in particular Arnie and Jack.
@catpain and everyone else: I doubt there are 2 full protective roles as that can be pretty strong for town. If there's more than 1 more protective roles, they are probably made to be a bit weaker. I'm expecting other roles to be in the game. There could be a 3rd party role but I doubt it's a killing role just because of balance.
My point is we should focus more on finding mafia D1 and interactions between people, we can determine if there's a SK on D2 after N1
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Post by thefakeprophet on Jul 17, 2018 19:08:42 GMT
ArnieDelsey : If you are indeed sticking with your claim, then if you're town, there is highly likely another member or tow here with a meme-related ability. If you're mafia, you could just be screwing with us. Also for the benefit of Em, I'll do a basic scenario of numbers regarding what could happen during the night. em716 : Assuming that there are only mafia and town in the game. Let's say 11 town vs 3 mafia Day 1: 14 alive. We eliminate town. 13 alive. 10 town vs 3 mafia Night 1: Mafia kills town. Day 2: 12 alive. We eliminate town. 11 alive. 8 town vs 3 mafia
Night 2: Mafia kills town. Day 3: 10 alive. We eliminate town. 9 alive. 6 town vs 3 mafia. Night 3: Mafia kills town.
Day 4: 8 alive. 5 town vs 3 mafia. We've reached MYLO, meaning if we mislynched town, town loses. However now we can choose to not eliminate and wait for Day 5 for a 4 town vs 3 mafia scenario.
Alternatively Mafia likely has some sort of extra kill in a 11 town vs 3 mafia scenario. Which means we reach LYLO on Day 4, which means town HAS to eliminate or LOSE.
In this scenario, we should eliminate D1, it gives us more leeway further in the game as we get more info and understand the situation better.
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Post by DefinitelyNotMafia on Jul 17, 2018 19:30:21 GMT
Order purely from the opening post by Ben. Hectic – good quality memes. Town read, slightly concerned with Arnie’s reveal but from playing with you I’d definitely expect a lot of memes regardless Mohneesh -neutral Sam – neutral, I know you said you were working but slightly leaning scum, just perhaps because I was expecting more Distributive – town read JCraster – neutral with perhaps slight scum, similar reasoning to Sam Catpain Blackudder - neutral Em716 – neutral, would like to hear more but I understand you’re not experienced with mafia Aurimas – neutral, from what I’ve played with you, you do tend to be quieter ArnieDelsey – (initial meme right at start of game) slight town read from contribution, although still not sure what to think about your role. Right at the start of the game, you posted a meme, saying it was to pass the time till we got 12 confirmed – afterwards realising ben had posted saying the game had started. Was this a move to get a meme towards your count early on or genuinely not realising the game started? James – neutral, slight scum maybe but I don’t feel I have a particularly good reason for that other than gut feeling Thefakeprophet – town read. Also I understand why you think a SK wouldn’t be in game, whilst I was expecting it I’m thinking it may be true because it’s a third party which doesn’t have to side with town so much (which backfired last game slightly). I don’t think there’s two town protectives, rather maybe one buffed or another town with some kind of night immune (one shot vest etc) and a serial killer with limited powers. Taran – same as Em Jackoclypse – neutral with slight town read, provided useful information and somewhat active but with short posts. Would like to hear more detailed posts/reads
I’d like to clarify my “town reads” are all pretty neutral too, I’m really not very confident in getting reads so early on lol
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Post by thefakeprophet on Jul 17, 2018 19:30:59 GMT
em716 : Let's now have a scenario where there's a Serial Killer (SK) in the game. 10 town vs 3 mafia vs 1 SK Day 1: 14 alive. We eliminate town. 13 alive. 9 town vs 3 mafia vs 1 SK Night 1: Mafia kills town. SK kills town Day 2: 11 alive. We eliminate town. 10 alive. 6 town vs 3 mafia vs 1 SK Night 2: Mafia kills town. SK kills town. Day 3: 8 alive. 4 Town vs 3 Mafia vs 1 SK
By D3 the worse scenario is that Town can't win without help from the serial killer on D3. This is one of the reasons I don't believe SK is in the game even if town has a Vig. The game is too swingy. I feel like Jack is either lying or that was just part of his town role to make things more fair for mafia to cause confusion. Of course I could be wrong and there are some weird roles in this game similar to what Arnie is claiming.
N.B. That if we no eliminate D1, it'll be better for us if there was an SK in these small numbers but Ben wouldn't do that. He's always been pro-eliminate D1 in forum mafia. In Forum mafia, D1 lynches shouldn't punish town.
We'll have some of our answers after N1. However what are everyone's reads. You can just do a partial read instead of a full read is fine in my opinion.
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Post by thefakeprophet on Jul 17, 2018 19:35:11 GMT
Here's the meme I promised which I deem suitable to playing a game of mafia. Vote yay or nay to my taste.
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sam
Dreaming God
Posts: 609
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Post by sam on Jul 17, 2018 19:45:17 GMT
Questions I have at this stage: - @arnie, would it be beneficial for the rest of us to post at least some decent memes? Is being zero a bad thing for us as far as your role is concerned? - @arnie, do you think that Hectic also has a meme-posting related role? You know the criteria for what is and is not accepted, does it seem as though he's deliberately trying to get a count up? Opinions I have at this stage: - It seems likely that James made an honest mistake, until we confirm otherwise. He must have known that the fact that some roles are meme-related would have come out eventually, I don't think he's that bad as to set himself a trap for later in the game. - thefakeprophet, I'm not convinced by that maths. There is a claim of a serial killer already (I can't remember who actually, but somebody said their role interacted with it specifically), so I don't think that information is particularly useful right now. I'm actually leaning towards not lynching day 1 as time goes on, for reasons that I'll elaborate on more tomorrow. - distributive reads as playing very differently than last game to me (I was not involved last game, but followed along). Everyone else that I've played with before (which admittedly, is only a few of you) seems to be playing in their normal style. - distributive you clearly aren't familiar with how I play forum games, which is fine as I don't think we've played one before. You can check my history and familiarise yourself with how I tend to play online, it's usually considerably slower and more reserved, as I find it at least slightly harder when I don't have physical reads to go off. I have been busy as well I suppose, but I can't imagine I'd have posted quantifiably much more if I wasn't (although I would post at different times). - thefakeprophet's read on hectic seems off to me. I see no good reason to lean town on hectic, and the rationale supporting it seems very weak at best. - I reckon the roles on each side are strong, for reasons I will not disclose yet. (This is part of the reason to delay a possible day 1 eliminate, I think mis-killing could be more costly than usual). - I'd like to hear more from jcraster. I'll post a full list of reads for each person (where enough information is available) tomorrow.
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sam
Dreaming God
Posts: 609
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Post by sam on Jul 17, 2018 19:48:31 GMT
RE thefakeprophet's updated maths (which weren't available to me when I was writing my last post): you're still assuming: - The serial killer gets a kill *every* night, and always kills a town. - That in a setup with 14 people and 1 SK, there would be 3 (THREE!) mafia. - That Ben wouldn't be able to balance a setup adequately with 1 SK in 14 people (which frankly, he can - 14 is a fine number for an SK if you have good protective roles in town)
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sam
Dreaming God
Posts: 609
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Post by sam on Jul 17, 2018 19:50:41 GMT
Actually, a couple of addenda: - distributive is probably a little unfamiliar with the format, which might well skew my read. Will see how it continues and readjust if needed. - Would like to hear from James RE the mistake he made.
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Post by thefakeprophet on Jul 17, 2018 20:20:30 GMT
sam: I neglected to say as I usually do, that the above scenario is worse case scenario. As to my reads it's a slight town lean which is weaker than a town lean to me at least. If you played with me before, my D1 reads are usually based on my intuition and read of the game. You can't deny that Hectic is playing far different from any of his previous games, although you probably played with him more than I have the past year. I do admit that I'm am making assumptions since I believe 2 mafia is too weak in most scenarios unless there is two mafia parties. And a group of 4 mafia is too strong. I thought I made it clear that I could be wrong but I'm following likely setups while keeping in mind other possibilities. My belief that there isn't a SK in the game is due to a slight bias in thinking of the setup and concerning what Jack revealed. And again the protective roles will probably be in line of what DNM suggested in his most recent post. We all have different reads on the game due to our own role. Nevertheless I'm glad you pointed out the flaws to my thought process Sam. It allows me not get too sucked into one thought process. Meanwhile I now want to see what's everyone's stance is concerning eliminate or no-eliminate. I'm still very much pro-eliminate today. Sam is on no-eliminate. Anyone can confirm where they stand now? eliminate: thefakeprophet No-eliminate: Sam
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Post by thefakeprophet on Jul 17, 2018 20:22:56 GMT
Preferably want an answer about the eliminate vs no-eliminate before Sam comes back to us tomorrow evening. Many Thanks. I'll check the posts after work tomorrow. Or maybe during lunch.
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